Selasa, 06 April 2010

Branstad has most to lose in debate ‎

Contoh Pidato - The Republicans running for governor have been busy setting the stage for Wednesday's debate in Sioux City, the first of three televised meetings for the candidates. Former Gov. Terry Branstad, the front-runner in early polls and fundraising, has the most to lose. He knows the other candidates will work to keep him on the defensive. They'll want the debate to be about the least attractive aspects of his 16-year record as governor: the tax increases, the budget sleight-of-hand, the legalization of gambling.

Naskah Pidato - Branstad signaled Monday, however, that he wants the debate to be about the future. He unveiled details of his plan to create 200,000 new jobs in Iowa over the next five years. His plan calls for gradually reducing commercial property taxes and cutting corporate income-tax rates in half.

He also launched two new television ads, both built around the theme that he is tested and ready to respond to Iowa's needs. They'll start inoculating Branstad against his opponents' message that re-electing him will send Iowa backward to some dark age in history.

Branstad's gambit puts him in the driver's seat on an issue that has been one of his strengths in the past. Bob Vander Plaats and Rod Roberts will have to respond with ideas of their own. They'll one-up Branstad and offer more aggressive tax cuts. Otherwise, it will look like they're the ones who can't take their eyes off the rear-view mirror.

The former governor is not much of an orator and debate rules such as timed answers aren't kind to his usual speaking style. He may overcompensate by memorizing too many canned answers and end up looking stiff and remote. Still, his debate experience over many campaigns will make it tough to shake him off message.

Vander Plaats is on his home turf in this debate, but he has the rockiest ground to cover of the three candidates. He has to knock Branstad off his pedestal and make the debate about why Iowans don't want a rerun.

This is a job that makes bomb disposal look like a great career for someone with hypertension. If Vander Plaats goes too easy on Branstad, the most passionate of his conservative base will be disgusted. But if he's too aggressive, he'll risk looking angry and desperate. Vander Plaats is a stronger public speaker than Branstad, and his passion helps him on the stump. In a debate, though, he may look more like a televangelist than a governor. It's a gamble he'll have to take if he hopes to gain ground.

Vander Plaats also was working Monday to erase at least one of his potential negatives going into the debate. He made it clear in an interview that he will not run as an independent or third-party candidate in the general election if he fails to win the GOP nomination.

"I am a Republican," he said. "I have no interest, no desire and no motivation to run as a third-party candidate."

Roberts, as the least-known of the candidates, benefits just by being on stage with the other two. This is his golden chance to introduce himself to Iowans and make a case for why he's the GOP's best hope to beat Gov. Chet Culver, a Democrat.

Roberts has tried to position himself as the "nice" guy, the one who will keep his feet out of the mud. He'll let the other two bash each other's brains out and just stand back and look reasonable. That may handcuff him a bit as he works to distinguish himself in the debate. He can't afford to turn into wallpaper - cheerful, reliable and all but invisible.

Political columnist Kathie Obradovich can be reached at (515) 284-8126 or kobradov@dmreg.com. You can follow her on Twitter at twitter.com/kobradovich. For more Obradovich columns, blogs and tweets, visit www.dmregister.com/Obradovich.

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